Will Bitcoins Next Major Movement Be Triggered by Election Day Leading to BTC Reaching 100k
Standard Chartered Bank’s analyst, Geoff Kendrick, has released a research report linking Bitcoin’s price trajectory to the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin could reach prices up to $125,000 by the end of the year under specific political conditions.
The analysis focuses on the November 5 elections, with Kendrick projecting Bitcoin to reach around $73,000 by Election Day. This target is just below Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $73,800, which was recorded in March 2024.
According to Kendrick’s research, a Republican victory in Congress could act as a catalyst for significant price movement in the cryptocurrency market. The analysis suggests an immediate 4% price increase following a Trump victory announcement, followed by an additional 10% rise in the subsequent days.
Current polling data from RealClearPolitics indicates that Trump holds a 59% probability of winning the presidency. This figure aligns with data from Polymarket, which places Trump’s chances even higher at 75%. However, there have been recent reports suggesting that a single whale investor may have influenced Polymarket’s predictions by placing more than $20 million in bets on a Trump victory.
The research also examines scenarios under a potential Harris presidency. While the immediate market reaction might be less enthusiastic, Kendrick’s analysis still projects Bitcoin reaching approximately $75,000 by the end of 2024 under this outcome.
The cryptocurrency community seems to favor Trump’s stance on digital assets, but there are notable exceptions within the industry. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, for example, has shown support for the Harris campaign through an $11 million donation in XRP.
Other market participants, such as executives at crypto asset manager Bitwise and cryptocurrency exchange Deribit, have shared similarly optimistic predictions. Bitwise projects that Bitcoin could reach $92,000 following a Trump victory, while Deribit suggests $80,000 by the end of November under the same scenario.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has taken a more neutral stance, suggesting that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory will continue regardless of the election outcome. Fink acknowledges the cryptocurrency’s growing mainstream adoption and institutional interest beyond political factors.
The analysis takes into account various market indicators, including options data and betting market probabilities, to form these predictions. These metrics help create a comprehensive view of market sentiment and potential price movements around the election period.
Historical data suggests that cryptocurrency markets often respond to major political events, although the extent of influence can vary. The impact of the 2024 election on Bitcoin prices will likely depend on multiple factors beyond just the election results.
The report highlights that regulatory clarity remains a key factor for cryptocurrency markets. Different administrative approaches to digital asset regulation could influence market sentiment and institutional participation.
As the election approaches, trading volumes and market liquidity are expected to increase, which could lead to higher price volatility in the days surrounding the election results.
The analysis also acknowledges that global economic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy, will continue to play crucial roles in Bitcoin’s price movement alongside political developments.
Recent trading patterns indicate increased market sensitivity to political news and polls, suggesting that election-related developments could trigger notable price movements in either direction.
To support these predictions, the research tracks various technical indicators and market metrics, including trading volumes, futures markets, and institutional flow data.